← tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
Fire ArcaneTier 3
at tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
decks
1
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.4%
avg ELO -6.7 per match
expected value
41.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1146
· median 1146
· range 1146–1146
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1163
Q3 1313
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
